This blog is based on an article published in the Journal of Social Policy by Rosario Scandurra and Ruggero Cefalo.
In the years following the 2008 financial crisis, many young Europeans faced significant challenges, including high unemployment and social exclusion. By 2012, youth unemployment had increased by over 50% across the EU-28. This situation prompted Mario Draghi, then President of the European Central Bank, to comment that the prevailing youth unemployment rates in some countries threatened the “European social model”. In response to these challenges, the EU launched the Youth Guarantee (YG). This initiative established a political commitment to ensure that every young person under 25 (or 15-29 in some schemes) would receive a high-quality offer of employment, continued education, apprenticeship, or traineeship within four months of becoming unemployed or leaving formal education. To financially support the implementation of the YG, the Youth Employment Initiative (YEI) was created, serving as its main financial resource. The YEI represented a departure from previous “regulatory” approaches in EU social policy because it adopted a place-based approach, with funding – €8.9 billion allocated for the 2014–2020 period – targeting regions with the highest need. Regional disparities served as a guiding criterion for funding allocation among member states: resources were allocated to regions where youth unemployment rates exceeded 25% in 2012. The goal of the YG and the YEI was to offer comprehensive support, including job search assistance, skills training, apprenticeships, hiring subsidies, and pathways back to education for early school-leavers and unemployed youth.
Despite the YEI’s specific territorial dimension, its impact had not been systematically assessed at the regional level. Our new research addresses this gap by analysing newly released EU budget payment data alongside regional statistics across 155 EU NUTS 2 regions from 2014 to 2018. Thus, we provide the first systematic, comparative evidence of the YEI’s effectiveness at the regional level. We examined four key indicators aligned with the YG’s goals: NEET rate (young people not in employment, education, or training), youth unemployment rate, employment rate for youth aged 25-34, and early school-leaving rate. Our findings, validated through multiple statistical models, present a consistent picture.
Evidence of Impact: YEI Effectiveness in Regions
The evidence indicates that YEI funding had a positive impact on youth opportunities across EU regions. We consistently found a statistically significant reduction in NEET rates and youth unemployment rates, alongside an increase in employment rates for young adults (25-34). Furthermore, it contributed to a reduction in early school-leaving rates.
A key finding is that the YEI appeared most effective in regions where it was most needed. We observed a pattern of convergence: in regions facing the highest youth unemployment rates (exceeding 30% in 2012), YEI funding led to more significant reductions in joblessness, NEET rates, and early school-leaving. These findings contrast with concerns about ‘Matthew effects’—where policy interventions might disproportionately benefit relatively advantaged groups and areas. Instead, the YEI contributed to addressing cycles of regional disadvantage, suggesting that concentrated investment in areas with high needs can serve both equity and efficiency goals simultaneously.
The YEI’s impact extended beyond immediate employment outcomes. Our research documented reductions in early school-leaving rates, particularly in the most disadvantaged regions. This is significant for long-term prospects, as young people without upper secondary education face substantially higher risks of unemployment and social exclusion. The programme’s educational effects reflect its comprehensive approach, focusing on skills development, supporting returns to education, and creating pathways between learning and work.
Implications for Europe’s Future
The YEI’s impact assessment offers valuable lessons for Europe’s ongoing and future social policies. The EU has committed €22 billion for youth employment support through the reinforced Youth Guarantee and ESF+ for 2021–2027. Our research validates this continued emphasis on place-based approaches, as current policies maintain the territorial focus that proved successful in the YEI period, while expanding eligibility and enhancing support for vulnerable groups.
For policymakers, the evidence indicates that EU interventions combining substantial financial resources with regional targeting can bridge territorial divides and support youth inclusion—the YEI contributed to measurable improvements in young people’s prospects across Europe’s most disadvantaged areas. At the same time, the study acknowledges certain limitations. Due to data availability, the analysis covers a five-year period (2014–2018) and is based on correlational evidence from regional aggregates, which prevents an assessment of the YEI’s medium-term effects. The lack of nuanced institutional data at the subnational level hampers the ability to systematically account for the impact of implementation structures, such as the capacity of public employment services and stakeholder networks. While overall positive effects were detected, the paper recognises complementary evidence from case studies and qualitative investigations, concluding that addressing structural flaws in public employment services and stakeholder cooperation remains crucial for increasing the effectiveness of the YG and European funding.
Our study shows that European social policy can increase both social cohesion and economic efficiency when designed with territorial realities in mind. The YEI recognised that youth unemployment is not just a national problem requiring national solutions—it is also a regional and local challenge demanding place-sensitive response. As the EU faces new challenges from digital transformation, climate transition, and geopolitical instability, the YEI model offers valuable lessons.
Reference
Scandurra, Rosario, and Ruggero Cefalo. 2025. “Assessing the Impact of the Youth Employment Initiative in European Regions.” Journal of Social Policy: 1–22. doi: 10.1017/S0047279425101001.
About the authors
Rosario Scandurra is a Ramón y Cajal Fellow at University Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain, and a senior researcher at the Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB), Spain.
Ruggero Cefalo is a Tenure Track Assistant Professor at the University of Florence, Italy, and a Senior Research Fellow at the University of Vienna, Austria.
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